This is nearly a month old, but it’s the start of the year. Let’s get ready! The IATA, or International Air Transport Association, posted its predictions for 2009. They forecast an industry loss of $2.5 billion for airlines. International carriers, everyone outside of the United States, is expected to post a larger loss in 2009 than 2008. Industry revenues are expected to decline to US$501 billion. Note: This drop in revenues is the first since the two consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002. Yields will decline by 3.0% (5.3% when adjusted for exchange rates and inflation). Passenger traffic is expected to decline by 3%, following growth of 2% in 2008. This is the first decline in passenger traffic since the 2.7% drop in 2001. Cargo traffic is expected to decline by 5%, following a drop of 1.5% in 2008. Prior to 2008, the last time that cargo declined was in 2001, when a 6% drop was recorded. Oil prices are expected to average US$60 per barrel for a total bill of US$142 billion. This is US$32 billion lower than in 2008 when oil averaged US$100 per barrel. More details can be found here.
American carriers suffered through the oil prices last summer – which in turn helped prepare them for the ailing economy. However international carriers did not have to deal with that as much; it seems to be that they’re next up at bat for that. Let’s see how close the IATA is throughout the year.
