Britain’s chief climate change advisor said London’s Heathrow airport could see a new runway if the airport’s growth, in passenger numbers, is limited to 60 percent. Additionally, the aviation sector’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must not exceed 37.5 million tones annually by year 2050. The news is a bit peculiar, as it’s a rarity for anyone in aviation to plan more than 15 years out.
The government’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) said, “To expand Heathrow or elsewhere would all be in the 60 percent constraint. Government should be able to show, whatever its strategy is, it is within the 60 percent limit.”
Expansion is already planned for the world’s second largest airport (by passenger traffic). The British government approved plans for a third runway at Heathrow in January. It’s estimated that the runway will take ten years to build, and will allow traffic to expand from 700,000 flights a year (from 480,000). In an earlier post, I wrote about some of the tactics environmentalists are pursuing to keep expansion from happening at Heathrow.
On future airport policies, the CC said total air traffic movements should not exceed 3.4 million in 2050 (today’s level is 2.2 million). The CCC is worried that little breakthroughs in energy efficiency / biofuels could cause a problem in the future. They estimate aviation will account for 25 percent of the UK’s total emissions in 2050 (at a growth rate of 3-4 percent annually).
The International Air Transport Association, or IATA, aims to improve fuel efficiency by 1.5 percent a year until 2020. In recent reports, the outlook is positive and looks achievable. Airlines like Continental Airlines have already begun testing biofuels on airliners. Airlines have used a variety of alternatives, ranging from coconut to jatropha oil. The results look positive, yet when will airlines adapt biofuels as a permanent solution? That’s still unclear.
The CCC says increased population could put a squeeze on the role of biofuels. An increase in global population could limit the amount of land available for food crops.
